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January's New Listings, Interest Rates, the Fed, Stock Markets, Q4 GDP, Billion Dollar Disasters & State Insurance Rates

Initial calculations regarding January's Bay Area new-listings numbers reflect a huge rebound from December (as is typical) and a large jump over January 2024. 

Number of New Listings Coming on Market Bay Area Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2020*

Weekly average interest rate: relatively steady at just under 7%

Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023-2025 YTD 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*

The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at its 1/29/25 meeting. Expect to see a struggle between the new administration and the Fed regarding the benchmark rate in the coming months. The next CPI (inflation) reading comes out on 2/12.

Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981 & Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*

Q4 GDP change was just released: Came in slightly weaker than expected by most economists (but these quarterly numbers are often significantly revised - as the Q3 number has been since its initial release)

Quarter to Quarter Change in U.S. Real GDP Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, since 2022*

Consumer confidence dropped slightly in the January reading, reflecting some uncertainty as to where the economy is heading. 

Consumer Sentiment Index

Stock markets have been rebounding from their "DeepSeek" plunge a few days back.

Financial Markets in 2024 - 2025 YTD Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/24

Another angle on Bay Area + Sacramento median house price changes over the long-term: All markets up from 2023, some hitting new price peaks. (See January newsletters for individual county/regional charts.)


Median House Sales Prices by Year Most Expensive Bay Area Counties, Trends since 1990*

Median House Sales Prices by Year Mid-Price Bay Area Counties, Trends since 1990*

Median House Sales Prices by Year Most Affordable Bay Area Markets + Sacramento County Trends*

The latest numbers and map, through 2024, regarding billion-dollar+ weather-related disasters and state insurance rates.

United States Billion-Dollar Disaster Type Counts

U.S. 2024 Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters

Though climbing rapidly in recent years, analysts believe CA insurance costs have been held down unnaturally low due to state insurance regulations, which are now being rapidly revised to try to stop insurers from completely fleeing the state (and continuing to shift enormous financial liabilities to the state Fair Plan). Needless to say, the horrifying fires in SoCal will only exacerbate the critical situation regarding insurance. The rates in this chart are changing quickly and substantially.

Average Annual Home Insurance Cost for $300,000 in Coverage Comparative Costs in Selected States, per Bankrate, January 2025*